The Decline of Christianity in America: A Pew Research Center Analysis
Jonathan Edwards, the young preacher who famously warned sinners of hellfire in his iconic sermon “Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God,” may be rolling in his grave in Princeton, New Jersey, as new data from the Pew Research Center suggests a dramatic decline in Christianity in America.
The latest analysis of U.S. religious trends by the Pew Research Center paints a bleak picture for American Christians. According to the report, if current patterns continue, Christians could make up less than half of the U.S. population within a few decades. This is a stark contrast to the nine out of 10 American adults who identified as Christian in the early 1990s.
The report, titled “Modeling the Future of Religion in America,” explores various scenarios of how religion in America may evolve. In all scenarios, Christianity’s share of the U.S. population is projected to decline, with Christians shrinking from 64% of Americans in 2020 to between 54% and 35% by 2070.
The Pew researchers developed eight versions of how religion in America may evolve, taking into account factors such as religious switching rates and intergenerational transmission of religious identity. The scenarios range from stable rates of religious switching to accelerated rates that could lead to a significant decline in Christianity.
David Voas, a demographer and sociologist of religion at University College London, praises the thoroughness of the analysis, calling it “an enormously persuasive picture of what’s likely to happen.” Conrad Hackett, the Center’s associate director of research and senior demographer, notes that the new analyses yielded markedly different trajectories from previous projections, indicating a significant decline in Christianity in America.
While the report’s findings may be disheartening for American Christians, the authors caution that unforeseen events such as armed conflicts, social movements, or natural disasters could trigger sudden religious upheavals. Despite the decline in Christianity, the future of religion in America remains uncertain.
As the Great Awakening sparked by Jonathan Edwards fades into history, the Pew Research Center’s report serves as a sobering reminder of the changing religious landscape in America. Whether Edwards would be dismayed by these trends or see them as an opportunity for spiritual renewal is a question left unanswered.